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Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters by Steven Koonin

(review by J S)

Climate is changing, that much is known. But what that means, what exactly we know, how much is caused by human activity, and what we should do about it, are subjects of great debate. Are hurricanes becoming more destructive? Are the hottest days getting hotter? Will climate change wreak havoc on the economy? Or have we been misled by politicians, the media, and scientific institutions? These are some of the questions explored by Steven Koonin in his book Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters. He claims that much of what we “know,” have heard, and possibly even told our friends about climate change, is not so.

I’m not a climate scientist, but I wanted to review this book for my own edification. I went into it with what I would consider the “mainstream” view of climate change, one that any average newspaper reader would have. I believed that climate change was a significant risk to society, but if there were counter arguments to this belief, I wanted to hear them.

I was not disappointed by the amount of education Koonin provided. Throughout the book, I learned about various aspects of climate change, from rising sea levels to changing hurricane activity. He clearly explains the fundamental principles of climate science and presents the chaos of climate in a way that is understandable without being simplistic. But as well as providing clear descriptions of climate science, he also makes claims that fly in the face of my understanding of climate change. He claims that things aren’t as bad as we’ve heard and humans have had a small impact on the climate. I found many of his claims surprising. It made me want to dig into the climate reports he cites to understand the full picture.

This review is the result of that research. It contains aspects of the book I found most interesting, as well as deep dives into climate reports and primary source material to further understand Koonin’s claims. I couldn’t cover the entire book at that level of detail, so I primarily focused on his claims about hurricanes and touched on other topics at varying levels of detail.

Book Review: Unsettled        1

How to Think About This Book        3

What Is Unsettled?        3

Climate Science        5

What Is Climate Change?        5

Sources of Information for Climate Change        5

Global Warming and What it Means to Be Hot        6

Extreme Temperatures        8

How Much Warming Is Anthropogenic?        10

Climate Modeling and Thinking About Uncertainty        11

Hurricanes and the Deep Dive into Scientific Literature        16

Koonin’s Claim        16

Background on Hurricanes        17

Disentangling Human-caused Climate Change from Natural Variability        17

Investigating The Claim        18

Background        18

Aspects of Hurricanes        19

Frequency — All Hurricanes        19

Present        19

Future Projections        20

Frequency — Intense Hurricanes        21

Present        21

Future Projections        22

Intensity        22

Present        22

Future Projections        23

Precipitation        27

Present        27

Future Projections        29

The Long Tail        31

Hurricane Conclusion        35

Tornadoes and the Weirdness of the Climate        35

Precipitation, Drought, and the Hydrological Cycle        37

Wildfires and the Ways Humans Affect the Planet        40

Sea Levels and the Anthropogenic Contribution        40

Summarizing the State of Climate Science        43

Cost of Climate Change        44

Impact on the Economy        44

Impact on Food        48

Public Opinion        49

Why Do We Get It Wrong?        50

Our Response        51

Carbon Reduction        52

Alternatives to Carbon Reduction        55

Adaptation        56

Missing Sections        57

Recommendation        57

Closing Thoughts on Climate Change        58

A Time to Build        60

Appendix A — List of Acronyms and Abbreviations        62